But did you know you’re doing the same when betting futures? And unlike single games, the juice varies widely. Often times, you’re getting screwed.
A friend of mine texted me a few weeks back and said he liked the Yankees to win the World Series, but his book was only giving him 10-to-1, which isn’t all that unreasonable out of context. Maybe that book just likes New York more than some other teams. So I asked what price he could get the Blue Jays at, figuring it would be a little higher. Nope — 9-to-1. This book is taking way too much juice on its MLB futures, and I advised him to find a new one.
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Betting season-long futures is fun. I’ve had one or two good ones and a whole slew of bad ones. But it can be fun having a team to follow and even more fun to say “I told you so” if they cash.
Let’s take a look at the MLB futures market, for example. Each team’s odds correlate with a probability the book gives it to win the World Series. So if a book lists the Cubs at +750, or 15-to-2, it gives Chicago an 11.76 percent chance of winning. If it lists the Twins at +4500, or 45-to-1, it gives Minnesota a 2.17 percent chance.
If you convert all the moneyline odds to probabilities by using (=(100)/(odds+100) for plus-money odds and add them up, the total over 100 percent is the theoretical hold a book is taking. On a normal bet, it’s usually -110.
On futures, it’s often north of -130, meaning you’re not always getting as good a price. But it’s important to search the market for the best price — Sportsbook.ag has the best hold of any book we looked at, but offers the shortest price on the Cubs. Futures markets can be crafted in different ways. Here are the full calculations in one spreadsheet.
Offshore book 5Dimes offers about a -132 hold, pretty standard for a 30-team futures market.
5Dimes
Sportsbook.ag
Sportsbook.ag is offering a terrific hold at about -122. It comes in a slightly different form than 5Dimes’ — the Cubs are crazy-low at +450, but the only team under +1000.
The middle of the pack is where Sportsbook gives bettors a fair price. Instead of listing the Nationals, Red Sox, Astros, Giants, etc. at 10-to-1 or 12-to-1, they’re all a little higher.
Betus
Here’s where we run into trouble. Betus.com’s hold is about -162, by far the highest of any of the six books we calculated. Its odds are the opposite of Sportsbook’s — the teams in the middle are unfairly priced at 10-to-1, 12-to-1, etc. instead of the 16-to-1 and 18-to-1 Sportsbook is offering.
